The BJP’s decision on Monday not to form a minority government in Delhi ends the baffling political charade played by the party for the past many months. Nobody really believes the BJP’s plea that it had to wait for all options to be exhausted for government formation by the Lt. Governor Najeeb Jung. Interestingly, Jung remains one of the few governors appointed by the previous UPA regime not to have been transferred or removed by the present central government.
Ever since the BJP stormed to power in the Lok Sabha polls, party spokespersons have been tying themselves up in knots on why it was not going for fresh polls in Delhi. They have tried to explain why the BJP was still ‘considering’ forming a minority government even though this option had been rejected last December. Moreover, the BJP having won all seven parliamentary seats in Delhi by handsome margins, both logic and norms pointed to a speedy election in the state.
Instead, what we saw were mysterious dilly-dallying tactics, seeking to keep both options of forming a government through the ‘back-door’ and having fresh elections alive. It has taken a sharp reprimand from the Supreme Court to force the party’s hand. There is also evidence to suggest the party’s lack of confidence in Delhi. Is it mere coincidence that suddenly over the past month as the BJP has been steadily pushed towards fresh Delhi polls, there has been an outbreak of communal tension in parts of the city and NCR?
It isn’t just conspiracy theorists who point to what happened in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh a few months ago just before the by-polls. There are common characteristics between Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. The BJP had swept the Lok Sabha polls in both states but remains unsure of its statelevel prospects because of the absence of a local charismatic leader like Narendra Modi and of a strong grassroots organisational network.
So, looking beyond the bluster of the BJP about an easy victory in Delhi what are the ground realities that makes the party so nervous about facing the electorate in the capital? One reason could be that the BJP is still unsure about success against opponents other than the Congress. The challenge posed by regional parties with strong proactive leaders backed by a motivated cadre is quite a different prospect to the jaded and faded appendage of the Gandhi dynasty.
It is true that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its chief, Arvind Kejriwal, have lost support of a sizeable section of the middle-classes, never mind the media, because of his short-lived and controversial stint as chief minister. His hasty abortive bid to make a mark in the Lok Sabha polls is also there for all to see.
Yet, the BJP is acutely conscious that the AAP remains a potent force among poorer sections of Delhi’s electorate. Populist measures of drastically reducing electricity and water rates when the AAP was in power may have worked their parts. The BJP is aware that, despite internal dissent within the AAP, Kejriwal and his compatriots have been working systematically to build up a support base in the city. The risk of nasty surprises can await the BJP in certain constituencies.
BJP workers privately concede that apart from the upper-middle-classes in Delhi, the party lacks a committed support base among sizeable sections of the electorate. It is not popular in the spread-out shanty towns as the party has antagonised a majority of Class 3 and 4 government servants because of stricter rules by the new Modi government. They have little to no support among the Muslim constituency. Interestingly, the AAP has reportedly made fresh inroads in Delhi’s sizeable Sikh community, whose support could prove crucial in certain assembly constituencies.
The BJP’s main reason for a lack of confidence in sweeping Delhi is the possibility of a complete collapse of the Congress and its traditional votebank of the poor and minorities crossing over en masse to the AAP. Party leaders feel the BJP could lose out in a two-horse race. On the other hand, the party has one trump card that can beat everything else: Narendra Modi and his promise of radical change. Ultimately this is what has given the BJP confidence to bite the bullet and go for mid-term Delhi polls.
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